Canadian corn production is projected to climb modestly to a new high in 2025, while soybean production is forecast to decline, according to Statistics Canada estimates released Thursday.
Model-based production estimates released by the federal agency Thursday showed national corn output is expected to rise 1.4% to 15.552 million tonnes. If accurate, it would be the largest Canadian corn crop on record, just barley topping the 2023 crop of 15.402 million. The expected larger 2025 crop comes despite a 2.8 bu or 1.7% year-over-year drop in yields to 165.9 bu/acre, with harvested area projected to expand 3.1% to 3.691million acres.
On the soybean side, Canadian farmers are expected to produce 7.016 million tonnes in 2025, down 4.1 bu or 7.3% from the previous year but still above the 2023 crop of 6.98 million. The national decline reflects weaker yields, pegged at 45/bu acre, down 8.5% from 49.1 bu a year ago. Harvested area is expected to edge up slightly by 1.3% to 5.7 million acres.
Ontario, the country’s largest producer, is forecast to harvest 9.905 million tonnes of corn in 2025, a 2.9% increase from a year earlier and the second largest crop ever, after 9.977 million in 2023. That reflects a 3.4% expansion in harvested area to 2.177 million acres, offsetting slightly weaker yields at 179.1 bu/acre, versus 180 bu in 2024.
Ontario farmers are projected to harvest 3.973 million tonnes of soybeans, an 8.8% decrease from last year, as both yields and area shrink. Harvested area is expected to fall by 7% to 2.871 million acres, while yield is anticipated to decline by 1.9% or 1 bu to 50.9 bu/acre.
Manitoba corn production is anticipated to rise to a record 1.948 million tonnes (+10.3%) in 2025. The expected increase in corn production was caused by higher harvested area (+19.6% to 596,600 acres). Yields are expected to fall by 7.8% to 128.6 bu/acre. On the other hand, Manitoba soybean production is projected to decrease by 5.3% to 1.617 million tonnes in 2025. Harvested area is expected to increase by 15.6% to 1.636 million acres, though yields are anticipated to fall by 18% or almost 8 bu year over year to 36.1 bu/acre.
In Quebec, corn production is projected to fall by 4% to 3.463 million tonnes. Yields are anticipated to fall by 1% to 160.5 bu/acre, while harvested area is expected to decrease by 3% to 849,800 acres. Soy production in Quebec is projected to decrease by 6.2% to 1.301 million tonnes on lower yields (-10.3% to 44.5 bu/acre), which offset the expected 4.6% increase in harvested area to 1.075 million acres.
